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Scottish Independence Odds

.Betting odds on the outcome of a Scottish independence referendum can still be found despite the fact there are no plans for such a vote.

The last vote on Scottish Independence took place on Thursday 18th September 2014, with the ‘No Vote’ winning a tightly fought contest.

Scottish Independence Referendum Betting
Scottish Independence Referendum Odds

There is a high turnout expected today. Of all the people who are qualified to vote (living in Scotland), something in the region of 97% of those are registered to vote.

The ‘No’ vote is still favourite. At 11am today, it is currently at a best price of 1/5 with bet365 (who are offering £200 in free bets to new customers), some bookies go as short as 1/6.

On the other side of the debate, the ‘Yes’ to independence vote is currently a best price of 4/1 with Sportingbet. The shortest price I can see for ‘Yes’ is 10/3, with most bookies coming in at 7/2.

Bookmakers Offering Bets On Scottish Independence

The question on the Scottish Independence Ballot Paper is “Should Scotland be an independent country?” With the two answer options being a straight forward ‘Yes’ to independence, or ‘No’ to independence.

Since the referendum was announced, the ‘No’ to independence vote has been odds on favourite. And up until Sunday 7th September, the ‘No’ vote was always ahead in the opinion polls.

If you are looking to bet on this market, it will be under the Politics sections on bookmakers websites. The ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ market is known by a number of different titles with different bookmakers.

For example, on the Betfair Betting Exchange you need to look for the market called ‘Majority Winner’ in the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 section. While at Ladbrokes it is just in their politics section, where it simply gives you the option to bet on either ‘Scotland to vote NO to independence’ or ‘Scotland to vote YES to independence.’

Other markets available on this are….

  • Percentage of vote turnout – this is where you can bet on the amount of people eligible to vote, who actually do turn out to vote, 70% to 75%, 75% to 80%, etc.
  • Percentage of Yes Vote – the percentage amount of the Yes vote, ie 35% to 40%, 40% to 45%, etc.

Latest Scottish Independence Referendum Betting Odds

17/09/14 – Don’t know about anybody else, but I’ve just about had enough of claim and counter claim from both sides! And I don’t even live in Scotland. Anyway, back to the betting, and ever since the poll that seen the ‘Yes’ vote take the lead for the first time close the gap in the betting, it seems to have been one way traffic in the other direction in the betting.

After peaking at about 2/5 early last week, the ‘No’ vote is now back down at a best price of 2/9 with Paddy Power, with most bookies offering 1/5.

The ‘Yes’ vote is available at a best price of 15/4 with Sportingbet. In general it is at around 7/2, 10/3 with most bookmakers.

11/09/14 – Alex Salmond was having a great day on Wednesday, he was giving the 3 main UK parties a good kicking, calling their campaigns ‘desperate’ and ‘falling apart,’ and all seemed to be going well for the ‘Yes’ campaign, which was reflected in the betting as ‘Yes’ was continuing to get backed in.

Then late in the day the Daily Record announced a Poll showing the ‘No’ vote in the lead with 53%, and the ‘Yes’ vote back down at 47%. Suddenly the markets went back into free fall, with Betting Exchange ‘No’ odds tumbling from 1.47 to 1.24 overnight.

09/09/14 – The drift on the ‘No’ vote continues, on the Betfair betting exchange this morning. ‘No’ is trading at 1.42-1.43 (it was 1.38 yesterday). While with the bookies ‘No’ is now a best price of 4/9, having been 2/5 this time yesterday.

24/08/14 – Things are really hotting up now with less than a month to go to polling. There is another live TV debate to come this week. So that could signal a change in the opinion polls, and subsequently in the betting.

Ahead of the TV debate a ‘No Vote’ is still favourite, currently at a best price of 1/7 with Paddy Power. While a ‘Yes Vote’ is a best price of 5/1 with Betfred. Considering the gap in the opinion polls has been closing for months, it seems to be a massive discrepancy.

13/02/14 – The UK government announces that there will be no union over Sterling. The SNP accuses the Westminster government of scaremongering and bullying, claiming it’s just rhetoric. And that come the time, a monetary union would be in everyone’s interests.

The ‘No to Independence’ outcome is still favourite at a best price of 1/4 with William Hill.

‘Yes to Independence’ is 7/2 with Ladbrokes and Skybet.

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